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Non-commercial public interest research documenting threats to liberal democracy, built on evidentiary discipline and transparent methodology.

This database contains editorial content compiled from public sources. While we strive for accuracy, we make no warranties regarding completeness or accuracy. Some assessments reflect editorial judgment. See our Terms of Service for full details.

© 2026 Threats.watch. Non-commercial public interest research.

We welcome corrections through our dispute process.

Home/Methodology

Research Methodology

Our standards for inclusion, sourcing, and threat tier classification.

Inclusion Criteria

Entities are included in this database when documented evidence demonstrates actions that threaten liberal democratic institutions, norms, or processes in the United States. We focus on:

  • Documented Actions

    We document actions, not beliefs. Political opinions, however extreme, are not sufficient for inclusion without corresponding anti-democratic conduct.

  • Verifiable Evidence

    All claims must be supported by credible sources. Rumors, anonymous allegations, and unverified reports are not sufficient.

  • Democratic Impact

    The documented actions must have a clear connection to undermining democratic institutions, elections, rule of law, or constitutional governance.

  • Private Figures and Minors

    Private figures are included only where conduct is established by conviction, guilty plea, or official designation. Named minors are excluded absent adult criminal adjudication.

  • What Counts as an Organization

    “Organization” includes formal groups, online platforms and forums, and decentralized networks. Operations run by a single identified person are documented as an organization when the operation itself is the threat vector, with the operator as a connected individual entity.

Source Standards

We prioritize authoritative sources with strong editorial standards and verification processes:

  • Legal Documents

    Court filings, indictments, verdicts, DOJ press releases, and official legal proceedings. These are our gold standard.

  • Government Sources

    Congressional reports, official government investigations, regulatory filings, and statements from government agencies.

  • Academic Research

    Peer-reviewed journals, university research centers, and academic experts in relevant fields.

  • Major Journalism

    Established news organizations with robust editorial standards: AP, Reuters, major newspapers, investigative journalism outlets like ProPublica.

We avoid Wikipedia as a primary source, though it can serve as a starting point for research. Partisan media, blogs, and social media posts alone are insufficient for inclusion.

Threat Tier Definitions

Entities are classified into five tiers based solely on the severity of their documented actions. The strength of the evidence behind a classification is expressed separately as an analytic confidence level (see Analytic Confidence below), never in the tier itself. Lower tier numbers indicate more severe documented conduct. Tiers describe documented past conduct, not predictions of future behavior.

Tier 1HIGH

Tier 1

Direct participation in, material support for, or operational coordination of political violence or terrorism. Applies to individuals and organizations.

Tier 2HIGH

Tier 2

Sustained rhetoric or content production that identifies targets and solicits, valorizes, or instructs violence — the pattern scholars call stochastic terrorism. We document mobilization patterns, not individual causation; direct causal attribution to specific attacks is noted where established but not required.

Tier 3HIGH

Tier 3

Concrete actions undermining electoral integrity, rule of law, or peaceful transfer of power.

Tiers 4 and 5 below involve more subjective assessment and are clearly marked as such.
Tier 4HIGH

Tier 4

Materially advancing authoritarian consolidation through policy, legislation, litigation, funding, or institutional pressure — whether as officeholder, candidate, organization, or major funder. Note: involves subjective judgment.

Tier 5HIGH

Tier 5

Individuals and organizations producing or amplifying content that legitimizes anti-democratic action or dehumanizes targeted groups, without documented Tier 1-3 conduct. Note: explicitly acknowledges subjective assessment.

How Tiers Are Assigned

  • Dominance rule. An entity receives the most severe tier whose behavioral criteria its documented actions meet. Lower-severity conduct is captured via categories and claims.
  • Ordinality caveat. Tiers rank the severity of documented conduct, not total societal harm. A Tier 3 institutional actor may cause broader damage than a Tier 1 individual.
  • Universal applicability. Every tier applies to both individuals and organizations.
  • Transparency. Tier changes are recorded in the public changelog with rationale. Tiers answer how severe; categories answer through which mechanisms. One tier, any number of categories.
  • Adverse-ruling review. If a conviction or charge underlying a classification is vacated, dismissed, or ends in acquittal, the entity is flagged for immediate re-review and any resulting change is recorded in the public changelog.

Evidentiary Floors

Each tier has a minimum evidentiary basis. Evidence above the floor raises the analytic confidence level; it never changes the tier.

  • Tier 1: Convictions, guilty pleas, or charging documents corroborated by independent primary evidence. Bare arrests are not sufficient.
  • Tier 2: Indictments, terrorist designations, platform enforcement records, perpetrator citations (manifestos, court records), or corroborated expert analysis.
  • Tier 3: Court findings, official investigations, or contemporaneous documentation of the conduct.
  • Tier 4: Documented policy actions, legislation, litigation, funding records, or institutional pressure campaigns from highly reliable sources. Assessment anchored to the four indicators of authoritarian behavior identified by Levitsky & Ziblatt.
  • Tier 5: Documented statements and content from primary or highly reliable sources, with the qualifying and disqualifying criteria disclosed on each entity page.

Threat Categories

Categories describe the mechanisms behind an entity's documented conduct. They are organized into seven groups across three facets: milieu (the documented movement or ideological identity), conduct (what the entity does), and target(who documented hostility is aimed at). Categories describe documented milieus and conduct; empty categories are expected — the vocabulary's existence is the objectivity guarantee, not its population.

Designated Terrorist Organization requires formal designation, proscription, or listing by a named authority (US FTO/SDGT, UK, EU, Canada, Australia, NZ), with the designation instrument cited as a source. Individuals qualify only via personal designation (e.g., SDGT). Descriptive government vocabulary is not designation.

Nihilistic Violent Extremism follows operational FBI/DOJ usage while the term remains academically contested; we apply it only where federal filings or listings use it, and note the scholarly debate.

Great Replacement Theory is assigned only when the narrative is the documented mobilizing frame of the conduct, not merely co-occurring rhetoric.

Targeted-hate categories (antisemitism, anti-LGBTQ, anti-immigrant) name victim classes where hostility toward that class is itself the documented pattern; other victim characteristics are documented at the claim level.

Lawful-but-contested conduct categories (election denial, voter suppression, weaponized litigation, dark money, and similar) denote systematic campaigns with documented democratic impact, never isolated policy advocacy or ordinary political speech.

Evidentiary Standards by Category Risk

  • Highest-risk categories (Child Exploitation, Human Trafficking, Designated Terrorist Organization, Political Violence, Foreign Interference, Corruption): require at least one verified factual claim backed by an A/B-rated legal or government source before the label can be published.
  • Elevated categories(Threats & Intimidation, Stochastic Terrorism, Militant Accelerationism, Nihilistic Violent Extremism): require at least one verified factual claim.
  • All other categories: require at least one complete, sourced claim.

These requirements are enforced in software at publish time and on every subsequent edit; a label cannot exist on a published entity without disclosed supporting claims.

Analytic Confidence

We assign confidence levels to our assessments following intelligence community standards. Confidence reflects the quality and corroboration of available evidence, not the certainty that an entity poses a threat.

HIGH

High Confidence

(85-100%)

Strong, corroborated evidence from multiple reliable sources. The assessment is well-supported and unlikely to change significantly.

MOD

Moderate Confidence

(60-84%)

Good evidence with some gaps or limited corroboration. Additional evidence could strengthen or modify the assessment.

LOW

Low Confidence

(30-59%)

Limited evidence with significant uncertainty. The assessment is provisional pending additional research.

Confidence levels appear alongside tier badges throughout the site. Hover over any badge to see the detailed confidence assessment.

Source Reliability Scale

We rate source reliability using a standardized A-D scale adapted from intelligence community practices. This helps readers understand the evidentiary weight of our sources.

RatingMeaningExamples
A

Completely Reliable

Court records, official government documents, legal filings, and other primary legal sources.

B

Usually Reliable

Major journalism outlets (NYT, WaPo, AP, Reuters) and official government statements.

C

Fairly Reliable

Academic research, peer-reviewed studies, think tank reports with documented methodology.

D

Limited Reliability

Primary sources (direct statements, social media) that require additional verification.

Note on government sources: Government reliability varies significantly by jurisdiction, agency, and context. We default government sources to rating C and evaluate each case individually. Sources from authoritarian regimes or self-serving government statements about political opponents receive additional scrutiny.

Periodic Review

Assessments can become outdated. We review entities on a schedule based on their threat tier, ensuring higher-risk classifications receive more frequent scrutiny.

TierReview IntervalRationale
T1

90 days

Violent extremists require frequent review due to high consequence of error

T2

180 days

Stochastic terrorism cases evolve rapidly and need regular reassessment

T3

1 year

Anti-democratic actors typically show slower behavioral evolution

T4T5

18 months

Lower severity tier with more subjective assessment criteria

During reviews, we verify that existing evidence remains valid, check for new developments, and assess whether the tier classification is still appropriate. Entities may be upgraded, downgraded, or removed based on review findings.

On Objectivity

We acknowledge that all documentation involves judgment. Our commitment is to:

  • Transparency

    We show our sources and reasoning. Every claim links to verifiable evidence.

  • Consistency

    We apply the same standards to all entities regardless of political affiliation.

  • Correction

    We promptly correct errors and maintain a public corrections log.

  • Humility

    Tiers 4 and 5 explicitly acknowledge subjective judgment. We do not claim perfect objectivity.

Questions about our methodology? Contact us.