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Non-commercial public interest research documenting threats to liberal democracy, built on evidentiary discipline and transparent methodology.

This database contains editorial content compiled from public sources. While we strive for accuracy, we make no warranties regarding completeness or accuracy. Some assessments reflect editorial judgment. See our Terms of Service for full details.

© 2026 Threats.watch. Non-commercial public interest research.

We welcome corrections through our dispute process.

Home/Methodology

Research Methodology

Our standards for inclusion, sourcing, and threat tier classification.

Inclusion Criteria

Entities are included in this database when documented evidence demonstrates actions that threaten liberal democratic institutions, norms, or processes in the United States. We focus on:

  • Documented Actions

    We document actions, not beliefs. Political opinions, however extreme, are not sufficient for inclusion without corresponding anti-democratic conduct.

  • Verifiable Evidence

    All claims must be supported by credible sources. Rumors, anonymous allegations, and unverified reports are not sufficient.

  • Democratic Impact

    The documented actions must have a clear connection to undermining democratic institutions, elections, rule of law, or constitutional governance.

Source Standards

We prioritize authoritative sources with strong editorial standards and verification processes:

  • Legal Documents

    Court filings, indictments, verdicts, DOJ press releases, and official legal proceedings. These are our gold standard.

  • Government Sources

    Congressional reports, official government investigations, regulatory filings, and statements from government agencies.

  • Academic Research

    Peer-reviewed journals, university research centers, and academic experts in relevant fields.

  • Major Journalism

    Established news organizations with robust editorial standards: AP, Reuters, major newspapers, investigative journalism outlets like ProPublica.

We avoid Wikipedia as a primary source, though it can serve as a starting point for research. Partisan media, blogs, and social media posts alone are insufficient for inclusion.

Threat Tier Definitions

Entities are classified into five tiers based on the severity of their documented actions and the strength of available evidence. Lower tier numbers indicate more severe, better-documented threats.

Tier 1HIGH

Tier 1

Documented involvement in political violence or terrorism. Evidentiary standard: arrests, convictions, or documented coordination of violence.

Tier 2HIGH

Tier 2

Rhetoric demonstrably mobilizing violence against specific targets. Evidentiary standard: documented causal links between content and subsequent threats/attacks.

Tier 3HIGH

Tier 3

Active undermining of electoral integrity or rule of law. Evidentiary standard: documented actions such as fake elector schemes or defying court orders.

Tiers 4 and 5 below involve more subjective assessment and are clearly marked as such.
Tier 4HIGH

Tier 4

Elected officials promoting authoritarian policies. Evidentiary standard: policy positions, legislative actions, public statements. Note: involves subjective judgment.

Tier 5HIGH

Tier 5

Media figures promoting ideologies deemed harmful to democracy. Evidentiary standard: documented statements. Note: explicitly acknowledges subjective assessment.

Analytic Confidence

We assign confidence levels to our assessments following intelligence community standards. Confidence reflects the quality and corroboration of available evidence, not the certainty that an entity poses a threat.

HIGH

High Confidence

(85-100%)

Strong, corroborated evidence from multiple reliable sources. The assessment is well-supported and unlikely to change significantly.

MOD

Moderate Confidence

(60-84%)

Good evidence with some gaps or limited corroboration. Additional evidence could strengthen or modify the assessment.

LOW

Low Confidence

(30-59%)

Limited evidence with significant uncertainty. The assessment is provisional pending additional research.

Confidence levels appear alongside tier badges throughout the site. Hover over any badge to see the detailed confidence assessment.

Source Reliability Scale

We rate source reliability using a standardized A-D scale adapted from intelligence community practices. This helps readers understand the evidentiary weight of our sources.

RatingMeaningExamples
A

Completely Reliable

Court records, official government documents, legal filings, and other primary legal sources.

B

Usually Reliable

Major journalism outlets (NYT, WaPo, AP, Reuters) and official government statements.

C

Fairly Reliable

Academic research, peer-reviewed studies, think tank reports with documented methodology.

D

Limited Reliability

Primary sources (direct statements, social media) that require additional verification.

Note on government sources: Government reliability varies significantly by jurisdiction, agency, and context. We default government sources to rating C and evaluate each case individually. Sources from authoritarian regimes or self-serving government statements about political opponents receive additional scrutiny.

Periodic Review

Assessments can become outdated. We review entities on a schedule based on their threat tier, ensuring higher-risk classifications receive more frequent scrutiny.

TierReview IntervalRationale
T1

90 days

Violent extremists require frequent review due to high consequence of error

T2

180 days

Stochastic terrorism cases evolve rapidly and need regular reassessment

T3

1 year

Anti-democratic actors typically show slower behavioral evolution

T4T5

18 months

Lower severity tier with more subjective assessment criteria

During reviews, we verify that existing evidence remains valid, check for new developments, and assess whether the tier classification is still appropriate. Entities may be upgraded, downgraded, or removed based on review findings.

On Objectivity

We acknowledge that all documentation involves judgment. Our commitment is to:

  • Transparency

    We show our sources and reasoning. Every claim links to verifiable evidence.

  • Consistency

    We apply the same standards to all entities regardless of political affiliation.

  • Correction

    We promptly correct errors and maintain a public corrections log.

  • Humility

    Tiers 4 and 5 explicitly acknowledge subjective judgment. We do not claim perfect objectivity.

Questions about our methodology? Contact us.